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'lies, damned lies and statistics'

     
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UK statistics have confounded medical experts by confirming that since 1982 only 33% of HIV positives have developed AIDS and only 25% have died. This will shock and delight people living with HIV who were presented with opinions since the start of the AIDS epidemic claiming that there would be 100% fatality within a short period of diagnosis who can now claim it's 'all lies, damned lies and statistics'. The only epedemiologist who got it right was Emeritus Prof. Gordon Stewart of Glasgow University as opposed to the Government's Cox Committee who got it very badly wrong.

Stats taken from Avert.org.uk

HIV infected individuals and AIDS cases by year of diagnosis and sex

Year of diagnosis

HIV

AIDS

Male 

Female

Total

Male

Female

Total

1987 or earlier

9293

817

10110

1511

52

1563

1988

1720

231

1951

870

38

908

1989

1871

269

2140

1018

66

1084

1990

2174

369

2543

1146

97

1243

1991

2273

447

2720

1252

138

1390

1992

2201

540

2741

1404

173

1577

1993

2090

530

2620

1549

237

1786

1994

2039

534

2573

1628

225

1853

1995

2081

570

2651

1487

282

1769

1996

2108

584

2692

1164

270

1434

1997

2075

661

2736

857

216

1073

1998

2068

749

2817

592

192

784

1999
2132
938
3070
556
189
745
2000
2449
1376
3825
572
236
808
2001
3061
1921
4982
466
229
695
2002
3311
2400
5711
491
286
777
Until end of Sep 2003
1949
1623
3572
203
166
369

Total

44895

14559

59454

16766

3092

19858

Only 33.40% of HIV positive individuals have been diagonsed with AIDS as above

Deaths with or without reported AIDS in HIV infected individuals by year of death

Year Deaths
1987 or earlier. 979
1988 481
1989 744
1990 894
1991 1106
1992 1237
1993 1562
1994 1700
1995 1719
1996 1462
1997 735
1998 507
1999 469
2000 477
2001 471
2002 395
until end of Sept 2003 258
Unknown 243
Total 15439

 

Only 25.97% of HIV positives have died of AIDS as above.

AIDS cases by exposure category:

How HIV infection was probably acquired

Males Females Total %
Sex between men 12343   12343 66
Sex between men and woman 2376 2383 4759 25
Injecting drug use 847 333 1180 6
Blood/tissue transfer or Blood factor 744 108 852 4
Mother to infant 252 242 494 3
Other/undetermined 204 26 230 1
Total 16766 3092 19858 100
Percentage total 85% 15% 100% 100%

HIV infected persons by country and exposure category:

How HIV infection was probably acquired

 
Country of report
England Wales N. Ireland Scotland Total
Sex between men 28645 434 152 1194 30425
Sex between men and woman
18687 265 88 919 19959
Injecting drug use
2767 37 8 1205 4017
Blood/tissue transfer or Blood factor
1539 58 20 117 1734
Other/Undetermined
3045 34 7 145 3231
Total* 54726 837 275 3580 59375
Percentage total 92% 1% 0% 7% 100%

How people got infected, by year

Year of diagnosis

Route of Transmission
Homosexual (male) intercourse Heterosexual intercourse Injecting Drug Use

1987 or earlier

6539

471

1421

1988

1381

242

230

1989

1455

360

213

1990

1704

534

200

1991

1714

647

242

1992

1640

779

187

1993

1503

770

204

1994

1483

794

168

1995

1474

851

183

1996

1546

835

173

1997

1404

1005

168

1998

1357

1160

130

1999
1350
1428
112
2000
1499
1987
109
2001
1735
2842
131
2002
1691
3305
104
Until end of Sep 2003
990
1978
53

Total

30465

19988

4028

HIV infected persons by country and year of HIV diagnosis

Year of diagnosis Country
England Wales N. Ireland Scotland UK Total
1987 or earlier 8807 134 45 1138 10124
1988 1759 36 11 135 1941
1989 1981 35 10 116 2142
1990 2378 36 12 119 2545
1991 2489 38 19 172 2718
1992 2544 52 12 133 2741
1993 2397 41 12 169 2619
1994 2360 46 14 146 2566
1995 2448 46 12 146 2652
1996 2474 36 16 160 2686
1997 2509 44 9 167 2729
1998 2618 30 9 155 2812
1999 2876 34 14 147 3071
2000 3613 46 19 146 3824
2001 4731 65 19 160 4975
2002 5393 71 24 216 5704
Until end of Sept 2003 3349 47 18 155 3569
Total 59418 837 275 3580 59418

Stats below taken from THT

Route of Exposure to HIV
Route New Diagnoses in 2002 Cumulative* Diagnoses
Heterosexual sex 3,305( 58%) 19,995 ( 33%)
Sex between men 1,691 ( 30%) 30,465 ( 51%)
Mother to baby 100 ( 2%) 1,023 ( 2%)
Injecting drug use 104 ( 2%) 4,028 ( 7%)
Blood tissue/transfer or blood factor 25 ( 0%) 1,740 ( 3%)
Undetermined/other 485 ( 8%) 2,246 ( 4%)
TOTAL 5,711 59,497
* The cumulative figure is the sum of all reported diagnoses since reporting began

 

Age at Diagnosis (Cumulative* data)
Age Group at Diagnosis Cumulative* Numbers
0-4 787 ( 1%)
5-9 332 ( 1%)
10-14 260 ( 0%)
15-19 1,333 ( 2%)
20-24 6,906 ( 12%)
25-29 12,967 ( 22%)
30-34 13,451 ( 23%)
35-39 9,937 ( 17%)
40-44 5,775 ( 10%)
45-49 3,264 ( 5%)
50-54 1,969 ( 3%)
55-59 1,104 ( 2%)
60-64 610 ( 1%)
65+ 400 ( 1%)

 

Ethnicity Numbers
White 16,159 (53%)
Black African 9,640 (32%)
Other/Mixed 1,110 (4%)
Black-Caribbean 878 (3%)
Black-Other 463 (1%)
Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi/Asian or Oriental 334 (1%)
Other Asian/ Oriental 337 (1%)
Not Known 1,360 (5%)
* Using ethnicity categories as determined by the Health Protection Agency

 

 
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